We probably haven’t had a real snowstorm in southern Michigan this winter. Let’s take a look and see if any snow systems worth watching is heading our way.
Looking at the snow events so far this winter, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Detroit, Ann Arbor, Flint and Saginaw haven’t had four inch snow at the same time. I would say there was only one genuine blizzard in northern Michigan this winter, in early December. This snowstorm covered Cadillac from Houghton Lake to Alpena with more than a foot of snow. Since then, only a few inches of total snow has fallen.
So if you are a snow lover I know you are looking west to see if there is anything on the horizon.
There is some hope for what I would call “a Michigan blizzard”. I think we could agree that a blizzard in southern Michigan brings six inches or more of snow.
Snowstorms are usually brought in an upper west-southwest airflow. This flow gives a storm a chance to get enough humidity and produce a shovelful of snow.
The upper airflow curves out of the west-southwest over the next week. Our modeling data shows two weather systems over the next 10 days that will move from the southern plains northeast to the Great Lakes. That’s a good flow for at least a low end snowstorm.
Watch the storms across the Pacific Ocean.
There is a storm in the southwest desert and at least three other storm systems over the Pacific.
Our models show this weekend as the arrival of a combination of two of these storms. Part of the storm in the southwest and a full storm over the Pacific are expected to combine.
Here is a forecast of precipitation from this Saturday evening to next Tuesday. Granted, this is far from predicting the details of the storm, but we can get a general idea of if it could be a “blizzard”.
The storm system is coming in the right direction to produce heavy snow and other winter conditions.
For now, I would be looking more at the situation than the exact release of the model. There will be two of this type of weather system in the next 10 days – one this weekend or Monday and another next Friday.
This type of flow and storm gaze can typically produce four to seven inch snow in the heaviest part of the snow.
Even the models right now aren’t going crazy with amounts of snow. You can see several bands of snow over six inches crossing the Great Lakes, but nothing very heavy.
In other words, yes, snow lover, we at least have a chance to have at least one full blown snowstorm in Michigan in the next 10 days. In fact, we have two decent photos of significant snow.